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Monday, January 17, 2011
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Earnings preview: The iPhone vs. Android holiday scoreboard
According to Steve Jobs, the real battle between iPhone and Android phones didn't start until October.
During a rare appearance on Apple's last earnings report, he admitted that Android "outshipped" Apple "as we were transitioning to iPhone 4." And he added that he was most interested in how sales of the two competing smartphone operating systems did during the final quarter of 2010
We get those results tomorrow afternoon. That's when Apple reports its fiscal first-quarter 2011 earnings, and for them that means accounting for its October, November, and December sales--prime holiday shopping time. That's crucial for any consumer goods company, but it's particularly important for the iPhone maker to see how it's doing compared to upstart mobile OS distributor Google and its free Android software. It's been proliferating across hundreds of devices and all major carriers, and over the summer began to show rapid gain in momentum. A report from ComScore last week showed Android just inched by iPhone, but remained behind Research In Motion in U.S. sales.
Of course tomorrow isn't all about the iPhone. Apple observers are anxious to hear how the iPad did during its first holiday sales period and while it's still one of just a few tablets for sale--something that will be very different come next December.
Overall, financial analysts are expecting yet another great showing from Apple: on average they expect revenue of $24.38 billion and earnings per share of $5.38. Here's the breakdown, by major product category, of what to look for.
iPhone: Bernstein Research thinks Apple will say it sold 15.2 million iPhones in its FYQ1, a 13 percent sequential increase over last year. Some of that increase at the end of the year can be attributed to AT&T allowing its customers to upgrade six months early without penalty starting in June. Many suspected it was a ploy to lock customers into new two-year contracts before the Verizon iPhone was announced last week.
Last quarter's earnings call was infused with a little extra drama when Steve Jobs joined the conference call and promptly jumped on the comparisons being made between sales of the iPhone and Android phones. He pointed out that Android "outshipped us while we were transitioning to iPhone 4," meaning for July, August, and September sales, and that he was looking forward to seeing the results of the last quarter of the year. Tomorrow we'll find out.
Obviously the biggest news so far for Apple this year is its introduction--at long last--of an iPhone able to work on Verizon's network. Now that we know Apple makes a CDMA iPhone, the next question is what other carriers that use that technology will be next to get it. KDDI in Japan is an example of a likely candidate.
iPad: Though the iPad debuted in early April, the last three months of the year are likely to bear the best results for sales of the touch-screen tablet. Why? Because Apple had some well-known problems with its supply of the iPad for Apple stores and other retail partners. Even during its last earnings call in October COO Tim Cook admitted that his inventory was still not beefed up to what is typical for Apple.
UBS analyst Maynard Um is telling his investors that the most recent quarter for Apple was likely the first that the iPad was not experiencing those supply issues.
As a result, UBS adjusted its expectations for iPad sales for the quarter, saying it expects 6 million iPads sold instead of the previous estimate of 5.5 million.
The iPad was also available in more places during the holiday season: Apple stores, AT&T stores, plus Target, Wal-Mart, and Best Buy. Verizon also began selling the iPad bundled with a Wi-Fi hot spot in October, all factors which suggest good results tomorrow.
Macs:There was only one new Mac released during the quarter, and UBS says it's expecting good results from it. Holiday sales of the MacBook Air, introduced right at the beginning of the holiday shopping season for $999 for the 11-inch model, was likely to attract shoppers, said UBS.
Overall, the firm estimates 3.9 million Macs sold during the quarter, which would be 16 percent more than last holiday.
iPod: Bernstein estimates Apple sold 19.3 million iPods, down 8 percent from holiday sales last year. That's despite a brand new iPod Touch with FaceTime and a "retina" display, but not much of a surprise: iPod sales have been dropping each quarter for more than a year.
Apple savvy in focus: The iPhone 4 camera
Apple's iPhone 4 camera packs a technology that a lot of buyers of the phone may have missed: a new image sensor tech that is coming into focus--pardon the pun--as camera makers like Kodak adopt the technology in higher-end cameras
The technology, called backside illumination, or BSI, was highlighted by Steve Jobs when he took the stage to roll out the new iPhone, as Joshua Goldman of CNET Reviews wrote here.
Apple's savviness shines through here. The company had to do its homework to get out in front of this trend, particularly in smartphones, which are not necessarily known for having the latest and greatest camera technology.
BSI sensors improve the image sensor's sensitivity--by boosting the amount of light captured--and, as a result, improve low-light performance while reducing noise. Sony was one of the first to announce the technology back in 2008. Another company, OmniVision, has made this available for smartphones.
OmniVision's BSI design takes the traditional CMOS (complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor) image sensor and turns the image sensor upside down, which is actually the most unobstructed way for light to strike the pixel. Why? Because conventional front-side illumination image sensors are left with relatively little photo-sensitive area after all of the transistors, dielectric layers, and metal circuitry are added on top.
I stumbled across one of the most recent applications of the technology during my trek across the vast north, central, and south halls at CES earlier this month. There, I bumped into the Kodak booth, where the U.S. camera company was showing off its new high-end EasyShare Max--(which is also mentioned here).
To contrast the difference with conventional sensors, Kodak has posted an example of a BSI sensor-generated image on its EasyShare Max page. In ad copy, Kodak describes BSI as follows: "CMOS sensors deliver higher quality pixels--better pixels are better than more pixels. Kodak's first BSI CMOS sensor delivers stunning low-light picture quality with less noise and less blur--no flash needed."
The copy about better pixels is important--a point Apple has made too. Kodak, to date, has been mostly an advocate of more pixels, not necessarily better pixels.
And Kodak is late to the BSI sensor party. It is not only following Apple but a host of other camera manufacturers like Sony--most recently in its Cyber-shot--and Samsung, as CNET Reviews has pointed out in the past.
But the fact that Apple, a smartphone maker, was one of the first to get this into a phone demonstrates Apple's tech smarts and heightens the anticipation for future iPhone 5 and iPad 2 products.
Report: All iPhones with OS 4.3 to get mobile hot spots
Yesterday Verizon (finally) announced that it is getting the iPhone for its wireless network. It wasn't much of a surprise--the rumors have been around for years and really came to a head in the last couple of weeks. But a revelation that wasn't widely expected was that the Verizon iPhone could work as a personal Wi-Fi hot spot. This essentially allows the iPhone to act as a Wi-Fi access point for up to five devices, allowing them to connect to Verizon's 3G network wherever the phone has coverage.
This type of easy tethering caught the attention of some AT&T iPhone users, as the feature is not available on current iPhones. The Verizon iPhone was noted as running a version of iOS 4.3, whereas current GSM iPhones are running 4.2. Thus the rumors started swirling that 4.3--released to developers today--would bring the feature to all iPhone's capable of running the OS, Verizon or AT&T-based.
And now, BGR, formerly known Boy Genius Report, says that the feature will indeed be available to all iPhones capable of running 4.3. Right now, that's looking like iPhone 4 on Verizon and AT&T, as well as the 3Gs on AT&T, or unlocked on another GSM provider.
For the personal hot spot to work, it's likely that the phone will have to have carrier support. Right now, AT&T charges a premium for Internet tethering, which is essentially what this is, and Verizon allows it with its top data plan. There's no telling now how other carriers, like T-Mobile, would implement it, if at all.
Of course, this is all according to a BGR source, who remains a mystery. It could be all false, but considering that the current version of iOS allows for USB and Bluetooth tethering, it doesn't at all seem far-fetched. We'll find out when 4.3 gets pushed to all iPhone users, whenever that is. But the next logical question is: will iPads with 3G get this feature?
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